China's Current Account Surplus Expected to Hit Decade High

China's Current Account Surplus Expected to Hit Decade High

Services Rebound and Trade Strength Fuel Surplus Growth

China’s current account surplus is forecast to reach a 10-year high, supported by a strong rebound in the services sector and sustained goods trade performance. While export momentum may normalize in the second half of 2025, policy shifts such as visa-free entry are expected to narrow tourism-related trade deficits.

Goods Trade Surplus to Narrow in H2

The goods trade surplus could see a moderate reduction in the second half of 2025. This is due to the normalization of front-loaded exports—where businesses shipped goods early due to global uncertainties—and an anticipated increase in import activity, particularly in industrial commodities and consumer electronics.

Visa-Free Entry Supports Inbound Tourism Recovery

China’s recent visa-free policy is set to stimulate inbound tourism, reducing the tourism trade deficit. With more international travelers entering the country, the net outflow of funds in tourism services is expected to shrink, contributing positively to the current account balance.

Internal Linking Suggestions:

• China Economic Outlook 2025
• China Tourism Trends
• Global Trade Tracker