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Dollar Tree Shares Rise After Q4 Earnings Beat Despite Soft 2026 Outlook

Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) reported fourth-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, sending shares about 3% higher intra-day Monday despite issuing a fiscal 2026 outlook that came in slightly below analyst forecasts. The discount retailer posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.56 for the quarter ended January 31, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.53 by $0.03. Revenue totaled $5.5 billion, exceeding the $5.46 billion estimate and marking a 9% increase compared with the prior-year period. Comparable store net sales increased 5%, driven by a 6.3% rise in average ticket size, which was partially offset by a 1.2% decline in customer traffic. However, the company’s guidance for fiscal 2026 trailed market expectations. Dollar Tree projected adjusted earnings per share between $6.50 and $6.90, with a midpoint of $6.70 below the analyst consensus estimate of $6.74. The company also forecast fiscal 2026 revenue of $20.5 billion to $20.7 billion, with the midpoint of $20.6 billion slightly below the consensus estimate of $20.69 billion. For the first quarter, Dollar Tree expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 to $1.60 and comparable store net sales growth of 3% to 4%. During the quarter, gross profit margin expanded by 150 basis points to 39.1%, primarily supported by pricing improvements and lower freight costs, although higher tariff-related expenses partially offset those gains. Operating income increased 30.2% to $695 million. For the full fiscal year 2025, Dollar Tree reported net sales of $19.4 billion, representing a 10.4% year-over-year increase, while comparable store sales rose 5.3%.