Copper Holds Gains As China Lunar New Year Shutdowns Stall Rally

Copper Trades Near $13,152 As Holiday Closures Cool China Demand

Copper held around $13,152.50 a ton in Asian trading on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, after two sessions of gains that followed a sharp late-January shakeout. The rally pause matters for markets because copper is a bellwether for global manufacturing and electrification, and its swings feed quickly into mining equities, inflation expectations, and foreign exchange.

Prices remain elevated versus recent history even after the pullback from a record high of $14,527.50 a ton set at the end of January. That gap is now a test of how much of the move was driven by financial positioning and a weaker U.S. dollar, and how much is supported by near-term industrial buying.

China Lunar New Year Shutdowns Extend The Demand Lull

China’s Lunar New Year begins on Monday, February 16 and officially ends on February 23, but the demand slowdown is expected to take hold earlier as factories wind down. The scale of closures is unusually important this year because copper prices are near record territory, raising working-capital needs for fabricators that typically carry inventory through the holiday period.

A survey of plants covering about 3.3 million tons of annual copper rod capacity, roughly one-fifth of China’s total, showed some producers in the south halted production as early as January 25 and do not plan to restart until March. Rod makers account for about half of China’s copper products, supplying wire used in electricity transmission, a channel that links demand to grid spending and the broader energy transition.

A 100,000 Yuan Level Has Become A Psychological Line

Domestic buying has shown sensitivity to price thresholds. Fabricators stepped in when copper briefly dipped below 100,000 yuan per ton last week, around $14,400 at the time, indicating a level many consider acceptable for replenishing inventories. That behavior suggests demand has not disappeared, but it has become more conditional, with buyers waiting for price breaks rather than chasing strength.

If prices sit below that level when industrial firms reemerge after the holiday, restocking could be meaningful. If prices stay above it, demand may recover more slowly, especially in segments like pipe, strip, and plate used in plumbing, circuit boards, and solar components.

The Dollar Helped The Bounce, But Physical Orders Look Softer

Copper’s recent resilience has been supported by currency mechanics: a softer dollar makes commodities cheaper in non-dollar terms and can attract systematic flows. The counterweight is order books in China, where higher prices raise financing costs for rod and pipe producers and can reduce near-term purchasing.

That tension is why the market has shifted from pure momentum to a more two-sided setup. In Tredu coverage of commodities, the near-term break in Chinese operations is a central input for whether the current price can hold without another liquidity-driven downdraft.

Market Transmission Runs Through Miners, Rates, Credit, And FX

Copper’s move affects equities through mining and equipment supply chains. Large producers typically act as high beta expressions of the metal because margins expand rapidly when prices rise, then compress quickly when prices fall and costs lag. A stall near $13,152 keeps earnings expectations elevated, but it also raises sensitivity to any sign that spot demand is fading into March.

In rates, copper can influence inflation narratives when the move is sustained. Higher industrial metal prices can lift input-cost expectations and support inflation breakevens, while a pullback can ease them, particularly when energy prices are not rising at the same time. That linkage matters for discount rates across equities, especially in cyclicals and in capital-intensive themes tied to electrification and data centers.

Credit spreads in the mining complex can widen when volatility rises because lenders focus on cash-flow stability and capex discipline. If prices remain high but choppy, companies with large expansion plans face more scrutiny over project returns and funding costs, a channel that can influence equity multiples even when spot prices are strong.

Foreign exchange exposure shows up in producer currencies and in the yuan. A steadier copper price can support commodity-linked currencies, while a sharper drop often strengthens the U.S. dollar through risk-off demand. For China, weaker near-term physical buying into the holiday can reduce immediate import demand, but any post-holiday restock can reverse that quickly.

Supply Still Matters, Even As Demand Takes A Breather

The holiday slowdown does not change mine supply overnight, and the broader market remains focused on constraints tied to power availability, declining ore grades, and project timelines. That structural backdrop is why copper has been able to hold high levels despite signs of softer near-term orders.

The next physical catalyst is timing. If inventories are drawn down during extended shutdowns, the market can see a sharp rebound in buying once operations restart, particularly if downstream users are preparing for spring construction and power-grid work.

Solar And Battery Timing Adds An April 1 Trigger

A separate demand pocket is tied to export timing. Some producers have brought forward purchases tied to solar and battery supply chains ahead of April 1, when export tax rebates are scheduled to change. That front-loading can cushion demand in late February and March, but it can also create a payback period later in the second quarter if orders are pulled forward aggressively.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario

Base case: copper holds within a wide band as holiday closures limit spot buying through late February, while a weaker dollar and structural supply concerns keep prices supported. Under this path, the London Metal Exchange reference remains near current levels, with miners range-trading and rates reacting more to macro data than to copper. The trigger is a steady post-holiday restart schedule without a surge in visible inventories.

Upside scenario: prices extend higher if post-holiday restocking is stronger than expected and the yuan price stabilizes below 100,000 yuan per ton long enough to unlock broader purchasing. A second upside trigger is renewed weakness in the dollar that pulls in additional fund flows, tightening the market into March. In this outcome, miners outperform, credit spreads tighten in higher-quality issuers, and inflation hedges reprice higher.

Downside scenario: copper breaks lower if shutdowns stretch into March more widely than expected and order books fail to rebuild, leaving inventories to rise and speculative positioning to unwind again. A key downside trigger is sustained prices above the psychological yuan threshold that discourages buying when factories reopen, combined with a dollar rebound that tightens financial conditions. In that case, miners can underperform, volatility rises across industrial metals, and rate markets may price lower inflation pressure.