JPMorgan Warns Retail Gold Demand Slows as Prices Retreat

Retail gold impulse fades as prices ease

JPMorgan warns retail gold demand slows as prices retreat, highlighting a cooler tone across key investment channels after an exceptional run earlier in the year. In a note dated November 6, 2025, strategists said that since the start of the fourth quarter, appetite from retail investors has weakened as spot prices corrected from October’s record highs. Holdings in physically backed gold exchange-traded funds have slipped by just under 2 percent from their late October peak, even though they remain above end-September levels, a pattern the bank interprets as a softer impulse rather than a full exit.

From record rally to quieter flows

The latest readout follows an extraordinary two-year upswing. Gold’s rally, which began in late 2022 near $1,617 an ounce, accelerated after Donald Trump’s re-election and culminated in an all-time high above $4,380 on October 20, 2025, before prices retreated below $4,000. That surge drew in bars, coins and ETF buying that pushed third-quarter investment demand to almost 540 tonnes, worth roughly $60 billion, up from about $50 billion in each of the first two quarters. With prices now off the peak, JPMorgan flags slower retail gold buying as investors reassess how much to commit at elevated levels.

Q4 signals: modestly positive, notably weaker

Quarter-to-date flows into gold ETFs remain modestly positive, according to the bank, but the tone has shifted. The mix now points to a “notably weaker demand backdrop” in early Q4 compared with the strong build-up seen ahead of October’s record. For wealth managers, the data suggest that some tactical buyers who chased the breakout are stepping back, while longer-horizon holders are keeping core positions intact rather than adding aggressively. That divergence is consistent with a market that has digested a powerful move and is waiting for clearer cues from rates, the dollar and geopolitical risk.

Bars, coins, and the retail psyche

Physical bar and coin demand had been a standout in the prior quarter as households and smaller investors sought a hedge against equity volatility and political uncertainty. The latest slowdown hints at fatigue among that cohort. With spot prices still several times above past-cycle averages, incremental buyers are more sensitive to intraday swings and to headlines about policy, inflation and currency moves. Softer bar and coin flows in early Q4 indicate that parts of the retail base are reluctant to average up further unless they see renewed stress in other asset classes or a fresh leg higher in gold.

Safe-haven story under review, not broken

The retreat in buying does not mean the safe-haven case has collapsed. Central banks continue to accumulate metal, adding roughly 220 tonnes in the third quarter versus 170 tonnes in the second, and lifting gold’s share of their reserves to just under 27 percent. Those official purchases, combined with institutional demand, provide an anchor that was absent in some past cycles. What has changed is the marginal bid: the retail investor who earlier bought both equities and gold as a twin hedge is now more discriminating, gauging whether current prices already reflect geopolitical and macro risk.

How rising and falling prices shape behavior

Gold’s history shows that after major rallies, long cooling phases are common. JPMorgan’s analysts note that the current uptrend, although dramatic, still ranks behind the surges of the late 1970s and the 2000–2011 bull market in percentage terms. For Tredu readers, that context matters. A pullback from a record near $4,381 to levels just under $4,000 can feel sharp in the short term, yet it may look like routine mean reversion on a longer chart. Retail flows are mirroring that tension: cautious trimming and slower new buying, rather than wholesale liquidation.

Implications for pricing and volatility

A softer retail bid can alter the microstructure of the market. When ETFs and coin buyers are less active on dips, futures and institutional flows do more of the work in setting intraday direction. That can mean choppier sessions around macro headlines, since there is less automatic dip-buying to absorb selling. On the other hand, the absence of a new surge of speculative retail money reduces the risk of a disorderly blow-off if macro conditions turn more favorable and larger players add exposure in size.

Portfolio positioning and strategy

For asset allocators, JPMorgan’s observations argue for more selective gold use. Strategic holders may maintain allocations as a hedge against policy error, currency debasement or geopolitical shocks, but they are less compelled to chase incremental ounces at post-rally prices. Tactical traders are likely to focus on support levels around recent consolidation zones, watching whether any deeper correction sparks renewed physical demand from Asia and Western retail channels. Without that reinforcement, rallies may depend more heavily on central bank and macro-hedge flows.

What to watch next

Several markers will indicate whether the slowdown in retail gold buying is temporary or structural. First, the trajectory of real yields and the dollar, which remain key drivers of non-yielding assets. Second, any shift in central bank purchasing patterns; a sustained slowdown there would challenge a major pillar of the bull case. Third, regional data on bar and coin sales from key markets, including China, India, Europe and the United States, which will show whether early Q4 hesitation persists into year end. Finally, the way gold trades around geopolitical shocks will test whether retail investors still view it as their preferred safe haven.

Bottom line

JPMorgan flags slower retail gold buying as prices retreat from record highs, signaling a cooler but not collapsing investment backdrop. The reshaping of ETF, bar and coin flows suggests that gold’s safe-haven role endures, yet fresh inflows at elevated levels will depend on how rates, currencies and global risks evolve in the months ahead.