Starlink Lets Iranians Connect in Blackout, Boosting Satcom Trade

Starlink terminals keep a thin connection alive during Iran’s blackout

Iran’s nationwide internet blackout has not fully cut off communications, because a small number of users have been able to reach the web through Starlink satellite broadband as protests spread and security forces tightened controls. With the blackout in place, some Iranians have still found a way to connect, and Starlink terminals are central to that bypass, a development boosting demand for satcom exposure and widening hedging in oil and gold as political risk rises.

People using Starlink inside the country described access in some western and border areas, even as fixed-line and mobile services were largely down. Alp Toker, founder of the internet monitoring group NetBlocks, said the service was reduced but still functioning, calling it “patchy, but still there.”

How the bypass works, and why it turns patchy

Starlink beams internet from thousands of low Earth orbit satellites directly to a user terminal, sidestepping fiber cables and cell towers. That architecture lets users connect in a blackout if they have a terminal, electricity and a clear view of the sky.

It also moves the fight from telecom companies to radio signals and equipment. Specialists familiar with the system said disruptions can come from jamming that overpowers terminals and prevents clean reception, in effect satellite jamming in Iran. Users said service quality varied by location, with some border towns less affected, consistent with uneven enforcement and interference patterns.

Cost and criminal penalties limit scale

Access remains limited by price and legal risk. Standard terminals cost about $599 plus monthly fees, a high bar for many households. Musk has said the service is active in Iran, and in late 2022 he wrote the company was approaching 100 Starlinks active in the country, a small footprint relative to Iran’s roughly 92 million people.

After the 12-day Iran–Israel war in June 2025, Iran’s parliament passed a law that formally bans Starlink use and sets severe penalties for people who use or distribute unlicensed satellite internet equipment, according to Iranian state media. That legal backdrop encourages discreet use and helps explain why terminals are often concentrated among higher-income users and cross-border networks.

Washington’s involvement adds a policy premium

U.S. President Donald Trump said he planned to speak with Elon Musk about restoring internet access in Iran, a step that raises the odds of a more direct political contest over connectivity. For Tehran, any perception of foreign backing can prompt harder enforcement, including terminal seizures and more aggressive interference.

For investors, this is where the phrase Starlink Iran internet blackout becomes a macro input. If satellite links keep information flowing, international pressure can build faster, increasing the probability of sanctions actions that affect foreign exchange inflows and, indirectly, crude supply expectations.

Satcom trade interest rises as rivals fund capacity

The event has reinforced the commercial case for satellite communications in crisis zones, which is relevant for listed operators and manufacturers even though Starlink sits inside privately held SpaceX. Europe’s Eutelsat (ETL.PA), the owner of OneWeb and the only other low Earth orbit broadband constellation besides Starlink, confirmed a OneWeb satellites order for 340 spacecraft from Airbus (AIR.PA) to refresh and extend its network, with deliveries expected to start at the end of 2026.

Eutelsat has previously estimated the extension program at roughly 2.0–2.2 billion euros over 2024–2029, and France led a 1.5-billion-euro capital increase in 2025 to strengthen the company’s finances. That funding runway matters to the satcom trade, because it turns geopolitical demand into contracted manufacturing work and a visible launch pipeline.

Oil hedges and gold demand respond to visibility and escalation risk

The clearest cross-asset linkage remains the Middle East risk premium. Iran does not need to lose barrels immediately for oil hedges to rise; traders pay up when the probability of confrontation, retaliation or tighter sanctions increases. If blackout workarounds make the crackdown more visible, the political reaction function can speed up, which lifts the price of protection and keeps crude options and shipping risk pricing supported.

Gold can move with the same uncertainty. When risks are political and timelines are unclear, investors often prefer liquid, non-credit protection, especially when rates are already a key driver of equity valuations. In that mix, oil hedges and gold demand can rise together even if broad equity indexes stay stable.

What to watch, and scenarios for markets

Base case is intermittent blackout conditions, with enforcement and interference keeping Starlink access thin and inconsistent. Under that path, satcom names keep a policy tailwind, while oil and gold remain supported mainly through hedging demand rather than a supply disruption.

Upside for risk assets requires de-escalation on the streets and quieter cross-border rhetoric, which would reduce demand for oil hedges and gold. Downside has concrete triggers: broader lethal force, new external measures tied to Iran’s leadership, or a regional security incident that raises shipping risk. Those conditions would likely lift volatility first, then tighten financial conditions through energy pricing and wider credit spreads.

Traders using Tredu will watch whether Starlink access stays patchy or is forced toward zero, because that will signal whether Iran can effectively police LEO connectivity at scale.