AUD/USD Slips as Australian Jobs Data Misses Forecasts, RBA Rate Cut Bets Grow

AUD/USD Slips as Australian Jobs Data Misses Forecasts, RBA Rate Cut Bets Grow

Published: June 19, 2025 | 🖋️ Tredu FX Desk

Pair Stuck in Lower End of Monthly Range

The AUD/USD currency pair is trading near 0.6440, testing the lower end of this month’s established range between 0.6440 and 0.6550. The Australian Dollar is reacting negatively to weaker-than-expected labor market data for May, fueling expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may deliver a rate cut as early as July.

Australia Employment Report: Weak Headlines, Mixed Details

• May Employment Change: –2.5K (vs. +21.2K expected)
• April (revised): +87.6K (was +89K)
• Full-Time Jobs: +38.7K
• Part-Time Jobs: –41.1K
• Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (unchanged for fifth straight month)

Despite the negative headline, the unemployment rate remains below the RBA’s 4.2% forecast for June, suggesting only a modest deterioration so far.

Leading Indicators Signal a Softer Labor Market

• NAB Employment Sub-index: 0.4 in June (lowest since Jan 2022)
• Westpac Unemployment Expectations Index: +5% to 127.4

These figures point toward rising consumer concern and business caution regarding job growth, adding to downside pressure on the AUD.

RBA Rate Cut Expectations Increase

Money markets are now pricing in:

• 78% probability of a 25bps rate cut to 3.60% at the July 8 RBA meeting
• Between 75–100bps of easing expected over the next 12 months

“The RBA has scope to ease further given muted inflation and a slowing labor market,” analysts at Tredu noted.

Read More on Tredu:

• AUD/USD Live Rate
• RBA Policy Tracker
• Latest Economic Indicators for Australia