BofA Raises 2026 Gold Forecast to $5,000/oz, Sees Silver at $65 Amid Safe-Haven Surge

BofA’s Bold Call: Gold to $5,000, Silver to $65 by 2026

Bank of America’s Global Research team has delivered a striking upgrade: raising its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 per ounce, with an average expectation of $4,400. Simultaneously, it sees silver climbing to $65/oz by 2026.

These forecasts arrive as gold recently surpassed the $4,000/oz milestone for the first time, and investors scramble for hedges amid macro and geopolitical turbulence.

What Drives BofA’s Bullish Stance?

Rising Investment Demand & ETF Inflows

BofA expects investment demand to grow ~14%, replicating the strength seen in 2025. That demand could help push gold toward $5,000/oz.

ETF inflows, central bank buying, and macro hedging are highlighted as key supporting drivers.

Tight Physical Supply & Silver Stress

On silver, while BofA anticipates an 11% drop in demand in 2026, it argues that the structural deficit and disruptions in physical markets will keep silver supply tight. That tension, it says, supports a $65 target.

The bank notes that disruptions in the London silver market, such as high lease rates and inventory pressures, have intensified physical tightness.

Macro & Policy Backdrop

BofA cites the U.S. fiscal deficit, rising debt burdens, intentions to cut interest rates, and a weakening dollar as part of an environment that favors precious metals.

The firm also acknowledges near-term risk of correction, especially with stretched positioning.

Risks & Constraints to the Bull Case

• Heavy positioning: With markets already pricing in strong gold flows, downside risks increase if sentiment reverses
• Monetary policy pivots: If the Fed remains hawkish or inflation surprises higher, yields could dampen gold and silver appeal
• Supply shock or correction: Improved mine output, easing supply constraints, or reduced physical demand could weaken momentum
• Regulatory or geopolitical surprises: Trade wars, sanctions, or shifts in fiscal policy may unsettle precious metals

What Investors Should Watch

• ETF flows & holdings data — surges or reversals may validate or challenge BofA’s forecast
• Physical market indicators — silver lease rates, forward curves, and delivery dislocations
• Central bank gold purchases — sustained reserve diversification into gold could be a tailwind
• Dollar and yield trends — weaker dollar or lower real rates tend to favor precious metals
• Potential corrections & pullbacks — mindful entry points could matter in volatile markets

Final Take

BofA’s forecasts of $5,000 gold and $65 silver by 2026 send a bold message: precious metals are entering a new structural bull run. While the path is volatile and risks are real, the bank is placing heavy weight on investment demand, supply tightness, and macro dynamics backing safe havens.

At its core: BofA sees gold and silver not as fleeting trades, but as foundational hedges in an era of macro uncertainty.