China AI Chip IPO Surge Puts Nvidia Rivals and Huawei in Spotlight

IPO wave reshapes China’s race to replace imported AI chips

A burst of new listings is pulling China’s AI chip sector into public markets, as demand for data-center computing collides with tighter access to high-end U.S. hardware. The IPO surge is lifting several local chip groups that position themselves as Nvidia rivals in China, while Huawei’s HiSilicon stays in the spotlight as the most established domestic supplier. For investors, the story matters because it links China tech equity performance to industrial policy, export controls, and a fast-rising capital spending cycle in servers and cloud infrastructure.

The market response has been sharp. Recent debuts in Shanghai and Hong Kong have delivered triple-digit gains in days, putting a premium on any credible path to GPU-scale chips, high-bandwidth networking and software stacks that can run large models. The rally has also become a barometer for risk appetite in Asian equities early in 2026, with chip names increasingly acting as momentum drivers for broader China tech baskets.

Moore Threads and MetaX set the tone with explosive first-day moves

Two listings in Shanghai defined the tone for the current wave. Moore Threads, often described by investors as a domestic alternative for accelerated computing, jumped about 425% on its first day of trading after raising roughly 8 billion yuan (about $1.1 billion). The company’s IPO pricing implied a valuation multiple far above traditional hardware peers, reflecting how quickly capital is chasing AI-related capacity.

MetaX followed with an even sharper debut, with shares surging about 700% in early trading after raising around 4.2 billion yuan (nearly $600 million). Despite reporting losses, the company drew heavy demand from local investors seeking exposure to AI compute at a time when restrictions on top-end imported chips have kept supply tight. Together, the Moore Threads IPO debut and the MetaX jump reinforced a cycle where growth projections are dominating near-term pricing.

Biren’s Hong Kong listing adds a second venue for the trade

Outside the mainland, Biren’s Hong Kong listing broadened the opportunity set for global investors who cannot easily access STAR Market listings. Biren raised about HK$5.58 billion (roughly $717 million) and closed its first session up around 76% versus the offer price, after opening far above that level and briefly moving higher intraday. The listing has been watched as a test case for whether offshore capital will pay similar multiples for China AI hardware stories.

Hong Kong’s renewed pipeline also matters beyond a single stock. A stronger market for semiconductor offerings supports exchange volumes and banking fees, while encouraging more technology issuers to bring deals forward in 2026 rather than waiting for a calmer macro backdrop.

Export controls push customers toward domestic substitutes, even with performance gaps

The driver behind the rush is policy as much as technology. Restrictions on shipments of the most powerful U.S. accelerators have forced China’s cloud providers and model builders to secure alternatives, either through domestically designed chips or through older imported hardware that is still permitted. That demand “pull” has arrived at the same time Beijing is steering capital toward strategic industries, including AI, advanced packaging, and local manufacturing capability.

In practice, this creates a market where buyers often prioritize availability and compliance over best-in-class performance. A chip that delivers lower throughput but ships on time can still win deployments, especially for inference workloads and internal enterprise systems that do not need frontier training scale.

Huawei’s HiSilicon remains the benchmark, not the newest IPO names

While public-market excitement has centered on fresh listings, Huawei HiSilicon AI chips remain the reference point inside China’s enterprise and public-sector ecosystem. Huawei’s Ascend platform has benefited from tight integration with domestic software layers and government-aligned procurement, giving it scale advantages that newer firms are still trying to match.

That is why the current rally has a structural tension: several listed designers have attracted enormous valuations despite small market share, while Huawei’s position shows the importance of distribution, software compatibility, and customer trust. For investors, the competitive question is whether the newest issuers can turn early demand into repeat contracts once the first wave of “fill the gap” orders is satisfied.

Valuations are pricing years of growth, and that raises drawdown risk

The speed of the repricing has put valuation discipline at the center of the trade. Some IPOs have implied price-to-sales ratios that exceed peak levels seen in global chip leaders, despite the issuers still running losses and facing heavy R&D spending. That creates a narrow path for performance: companies need rapid revenue expansion and visible margins before investor patience runs out.

Wang Yapei, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Zijie Private Fund, has argued that the froth is welcomed by policymakers because it funds long-term research, but it leaves little room for execution slips. The market is effectively paying for a successful scale-up in software, fabrication access, and customer adoption, all at once.

Manufacturing constraints shift attention to SMIC and packaging capacity

Even if demand stays strong, supply remains a gating factor. China’s ability to manufacture leading-edge chips at scale is constrained by equipment limits and process maturity, making capacity planning as important as chip design. Foundries such as SMIC play a critical role in converting design wins into shipments, particularly for products that require tighter power efficiency and high-yield output.

Packaging is another bottleneck. Advanced AI chips increasingly depend on sophisticated packaging to manage memory bandwidth and thermal limits, and shortages in those services can cap near-term deliveries. For markets, this means the upside is not only tied to model growth, it is tied to whether the supply chain can physically build and package enough units to meet deployment schedules.

Market impact spreads into China tech indices, global semis, and volatility hedges

The immediate effect is higher beta in China’s technology complex. When AI chip names rally, they can pull up mainland indices and Hong Kong tech benchmarks, while tightening risk premia across other “strategic” categories such as cloud, robotics and data-center equipment.

Globally, the surge adds a new angle to semiconductor positioning. It can raise concerns about share erosion for incumbents in China-facing demand, while also supporting a longer build cycle in servers, networking and power infrastructure. At the same time, the most likely market outcome is higher dispersion: some listed issuers may convert hype into shipments, while others struggle to compete once early enthusiasm fades.

Base case, upside trigger, downside trigger for 2026 pricing

The base case is continued funding and steady deployment as customers diversify away from restricted imports. Under this path, equity prices stay sensitive to delivery metrics, contract wins and quarterly revenue growth, with sharp moves in both directions.

The upside scenario needs two concrete triggers: credible software ecosystems that reduce switching costs for customers, and supply-chain execution that turns prototypes into volume shipments. If that happens, today’s valuations can be defended by faster revenue scaling.

The downside scenario is defined by slower commercialization and higher compliance friction, including tightened enforcement around advanced components, weaker pricing power, or delays that push customers back toward incumbent solutions. In that case, the same momentum that lifted listings can reverse quickly, lifting hedging demand and dragging broader China tech sentiment with it.