China’s April Economic Activity Shows Resilience Amid Tariff War – Standard Chartered

China's April Economic Activity Shows Resilience Amid Tariff War – Standard Chartered

China's economic activity in April displayed resilience despite the ongoing tariff war. While industrial production held steady, retail sales and fixed investment showed slight softness. Frontloaded exports and the implementation of macroeconomic policies are expected to continue supporting growth in the second quarter. However, the property market remains a significant drag on the domestic economy. Standard Chartered economists predict a growth rate of around 5% in Q2, down from 5.4% in Q1, with a positive base effect helping to boost growth.

The data indicates solid retail sales in subsidized goods under the government's consumer trade-in scheme, alongside strong growth in infrastructure and manufacturing investment, supported by frontloaded government bond issuance. Despite slowing momentum from Q1, activity in April suggests continued resilience, which will likely support China’s economic performance in the coming months. However, uncertainty remains high, and a tariff truce reduces the likelihood of further stimulus measures in the second half of the year.