China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI Rises to 50.4 in June, Beats Market Forecasts

China’s Manufacturing Sector Returns to Expansion in June, Caixin PMI Hits 50.4

China’s Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.4 in June 2025, up from 48.3 in May, according to data released on Tuesday. The result exceeded market expectations of 49.0, marking the first return to expansion territory (above 50) in three months.

Key PMI Data – June 2025

IndicatorJune 2025May 2025ForecastCaixin Manufacturing PMI50.448.349.0

This upbeat PMI reading signals improving business conditions in China’s private manufacturing sector, driven by modest increases in output and new orders. Analysts interpret this as a sign of stabilizing economic momentum despite broader concerns around global demand and trade policy.

Market Impact and Outlook

The positive PMI surprise may support regional currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD) and Asian equity indices, as it suggests improving demand from one of the world’s largest manufacturing hubs.

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