China’s Trade Surplus Widens in May as Imports Decline Sharply

China’s Trade Surplus Expands in May Despite Slowing Exports

China’s trade balance for May 2025 came in stronger than expected as imports declined sharply, widening the country's surplus even though export growth slowed. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, both CNY and USD figures confirmed that China’s trade gap widened on a year-over-year basis.

Trade Surplus (CNY Terms) Beats Estimates

• Trade Surplus (CNY): ¥743.56 billion
• Previous: ¥689.99 billion

In local currency terms, the surplus was higher than forecast, with slowing imports contributing significantly to the broader trade gap.

Trade Balance (USD Terms)

In US Dollar terms, the trade surplus rose to $103.22 billion, surpassing both the $101.3 billion estimate and April’s $96.18 billion figure.

• Exports (YoY): +4.8% (vs. 5% expected, 8.1% prior)
• Imports (YoY): -3.4% (vs. -0.9% expected, -0.2% prior)

The import contraction signals weaker domestic demand, while the slowdown in export growth may reflect deteriorating global trade momentum.

🇺🇸 Trade Surplus with the US Narrows

• May 2025: $18.01 billion
• April 2025: $20.46 billion

Despite the overall rise in surplus, China’s trade surplus with the US declined, underscoring potential shifts in bilateral trade dynamics amid ongoing geopolitical and supply chain adjustments.

Global Demand & Domestic Headwinds Persist

The latest trade data aligns with other softening indicators in China, including falling inflation and sluggish factory activity, raising concerns over China’s post-pandemic recovery strength.

The steep decline in imports highlights cautious domestic consumption, while the moderation in export growth reflects waning global demand—a trend that could influence upcoming monetary and fiscal responses from Chinese authorities.

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• US-China Trade Talks: What’s Next After the London Meeting

Key Takeaways:

• China’s May trade surplus rose to $103.22B (USD terms), beating estimates.
• Exports YoY: +4.8%, slower than April’s +8.1%.
• Imports YoY: -3.4%, a deeper contraction than expected.
• Surplus with the US shrank to $18.01B, down from April.
• Indicators point to sluggish domestic demand and cooling global trade.