EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Maintains Bullish Momentum Above 163.00 Level

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Intact as Pair Holds Above 163.00

Published: Thursday, June 5, 2025 | Source: Tredu.com Forex Analysis Team

The EUR/JPY currency pair is trading slightly higher near 163.15 during Thursday’s Asian session. The Euro continues to gain modestly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term.

A Reuters survey indicates most economists expect no rate change from the BoJ until at least September, with only a narrow majority forecasting a hike by year-end. This dovish stance is contributing to JPY weakness, supporting EUR/JPY's upward bias.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Signal Holds Above 100-Day EMA

Technically, EUR/JPY is trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a key bullish signal.

Key Technical Levels:

• Immediate Resistance: 164.24
• First Support: 162.20
• 14-Day RSI: Neutral, hovering near the 50 mark

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near the midline suggests neutral near-term momentum, which could result in some sideways consolidation. However, the overall bias remains to the upside as long as the pair holds above the 100-day EMA.

Fundamental Drivers: BoJ Outlook & Geopolitics

• BoJ policy expectations continue to favor a weaker JPY, as Japan’s inflation remains subdued and policymakers show caution about further tightening.
• Geopolitical risks and trade-related uncertainties could trigger temporary safe-haven flows into the Yen, but such flows remain limited for now.

Related on Tredu.com:

• How Central Bank Policies Impact Forex Markets
• Live EUR/JPY Chart & Technical Indicators
• Top Forex Pairs to Watch This Week

Conclusion: EUR/JPY Trend Still Favors Upside

Despite neutral short-term momentum, the broader technical setup favors bullish continuation. A clear break above 164.24 could open the door to further gains, while strong support near 162.20 may cushion any dips.