EUR/USD Firms After US Tariff Scare, But ING Warns of Political Resistance to Global Euro Role

EUR/USD holds firm after tariff scare, but ING flags political resistance to Euro’s global role

The Euro (EUR) has remained steady against the US Dollar (USD) despite an initial jolt from recent US tariff threats targeting the European Union. The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1420 on Monday before slipping slightly below 1.1400. With normal trading volumes resuming after the long US holiday weekend, the pair may trend higher, supported by broader USD weakness.

Markets shield Euro from internal risks

Analysts at ING highlighted that in times of heightened global trade tensions, markets tend to penalize the US Dollar more than other currencies. As a result, the Euro often avoids significant downside, even when idiosyncratic risks within the Eurozone persist. This trend appears to have continued, with the EUR/USD showing resilience in the face of both transatlantic trade uncertainty and structural weaknesses within the EU.

Global Euro ambition faces internal EU resistance

However, ING also cautioned that while the Euro’s international appeal might grow as an alternative to the US Dollar—especially amid US fiscal instability—any real progress toward a “global Euro” could encounter strong political resistance within the Eurozone. Disparities in fiscal policy, lack of full monetary union, and divergent national interests remain major hurdles that could hinder the Euro’s evolution into a true global reserve currency.

Focus shifts to US data and EU sentiment

With trading activity picking up, markets will now turn to key economic data, including US Durable Goods Orders and Consumer Confidence figures, due later in the day. In Europe, the release of business and consumer sentiment indicators will also be closely watched.

While short-term movements in EUR/USD may be driven by incoming data and shifts in risk sentiment, the broader narrative—centered on the Euro’s long-term global role—will likely depend on deeper institutional reforms within the EU.