EUR/USD Stalls at 1.160–1.165 Resistance: Stronger US Catalyst Needed for Breakout

EUR/USD Tests Major Resistance at 1.160–1.165 as Rally Stalls

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to struggle at the 1.160–1.165 resistance zone, a critical technical ceiling that has repeatedly capped the Euro’s upside. After gaining on easing geopolitical tensions, the pair now appears to be in consolidation mode, awaiting a stronger macroeconomic catalyst to sustain any breakout.

Key Market Insights

1. Resistance Zone Holds Firm

The 1.160 to 1.165 area remains a strong supply zone, acting as a ceiling for recent bullish momentum. Despite risk-on sentiment fueled by a Middle East ceasefire and improving global confidence, the Euro has lacked follow-through buying interest to push beyond this range.

2. Lack of Compelling Macro Narrative

Market participants are now looking toward the United States for meaningful data or Fed commentary that could provide direction. Without a fresh narrative—such as strong inflation surprises, unexpected Fed policy shifts, or soft US growth data—EUR/USD upside remains capped.

3. Geopolitical Relief Already Priced In

The initial risk relief from the Israel-Iran ceasefire has already been absorbed by the market. Traders are now reverting to core macro drivers like inflation, interest rate expectations, and relative economic strength between the Eurozone and the U.S.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Levels to Watch

Immediate Resistance: 1.1650 (multi-session cap)
Key Support: 1.1550 and 1.1500
Trend Bias: Neutral-to-bullish while above 1.1500
Breakout Trigger: Sustained move above 1.1650 backed by U.S. data weakness

Market Outlook

Until a clearer macro catalyst emerges, particularly from the U.S. side, the EUR/USD pair is likely to trade in a range below the current resistance. A decisive move through 1.1650 may only occur if upcoming U.S. economic data disappoints, increasing bets on earlier Fed rate cuts.