Gold Rebounds Above $5,180 As Tariffs And Iran Talks Lift Haven Bid

Gold Finds Support After Tuesday’s Pullback

Gold prices rose in Wednesday trade after Tuesday’s 1.6% drop ended a four-session run of gains. Spot metal held above $5,180 per ounce, while U.S. futures hovered near $5,206, keeping the market close to recent highs even as positioning turned more defensive.

During the session, spot was quoted around $5,188 an ounce and the front U.S. contract traded close to $5,206. The rebound tone reflects a haven tilt tied to trade policy uncertainty and Middle East diplomacy, while the direction of U.S. rates continues to influence how far the move can run.

Tariffs Reprice Inflation And Growth Expectations

The United States began collecting a temporary 10% global import tariff on Tuesday, February 24, and officials have signaled work toward a 15% levy. For markets, the transmission runs from higher landed costs into inflation prints, then into earnings as firms absorb the hit, pass it on, or cut demand-sensitive volumes.

A Supreme Court decision last week struck down an earlier set of broad duties imposed using emergency powers. The pivot to alternative legal authority leaves the framework active but the end-state unclear, a mix that typically lifts hedging activity and supports gold.

Geneva Talks Keep A Geopolitical Premium In Place

Traders are positioning for a third round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva. With military pressure rising in the region, the risk premium can show up first in energy and freight, then spill into broader risk sentiment and a stronger bid for safe assets.

Brent has been trading around $71 a barrel and U.S. crude near $66. Elevated oil prices can push inflation expectations higher, while a conflict scare can trigger risk-off flows, conditions that often reinforce haven demand for bullion.

Higher-For-Longer Rates Limit Follow-Through

The market also rebounds against a policy backdrop that still looks restrictive. Two Federal Reserve officials signaled little appetite to change stance in the near term, supporting a higher-for-longer Fed view that can temper upside in non-yielding assets. The U.S. 10-year yield has been trading around 4.05%, keeping real-yield competition relevant.

The dollar’s pullback has been modest. If the greenback firms again on yields or risk aversion, it can cap gains even if tariff headlines and Iran developments keep the safety narrative intact.

Silver And Platinum Rally, Copper Tracks China Demand

Moves across metals suggest a blend of defensive and cyclical positioning. The silver and platinum rally has been sharp, with silver up close to 3.5% near $90.55 per ounce and platinum more than 5% higher around $2,309.60, levels that can intensify cross-asset volatility because both metals react to monetary conditions and industrial demand.

Copper edged higher as Chinese participation returned after Lunar New Year holidays, lifting import appetite. London copper traded around $13,296 a metric ton and U.S. copper near $6.03 a pound, with demand recovery improving early, even as inventories could slow near-term tightening.

How This Can Hit Stocks, FX, Rates, And Credit

In equities, firmer bullion can lift miners and royalty companies through higher realized prices, while adding input-cost pressure to jewelry supply chains. In FX, a softer dollar supports commodities mechanically, but the more important channel is risk sentiment: escalation risk can strengthen the yen and the dollar, while easing tensions can boost higher-beta currencies.

In rates, tariffs can lift inflation compensation, but growth worries can still bid duration, keeping curve moves two-sided. Credit spreads often widen when trade uncertainty hits confidence, especially for import-heavy cyclicals. In Tredu volatility measures, demand for protection typically shows up as richer downside skew when gold is firm and equity futures are choppy.

Base Case, Upside Scenario, Downside Scenario

Base case: gold holds above the $5,000 level and trades in a $5,100–$5,250 range through March as tariff policy remains unsettled and Geneva Iran talks deliver incremental progress without a decisive shift. The trigger is whether the tariff rate stabilizes closer to 10% or moves toward 15%.

Upside scenario: the tariff rate rises and Iran talks stall, lifting oil and shipping premia as U.S. yields slip on growth concerns. Under that mix, haven demand can push gold toward recent peaks, with silver and platinum staying bid if liquidity holds.

Downside scenario: trade clarity improves and Thursday’s talks reduce the geopolitical premium, allowing yields and the dollar to firm. In that setting, gold can fall below $5,180 and drift toward $5,100, especially if carry costs rise and positioning unwinds.