Goldman Sachs Predicts Limited Oil Price Upside Despite Tariff Impact, Cites U.S. Policy Influence

Goldman Sachs Maintains Oil Price Forecast, Citing Tariff Impact and Supply Risks

Goldman Sachs continues to expect a significant impact from tariffs on U.S. real income, global GDP, and oil demand. However, the recent reductions in U.S. tariffs have led the bank to increase its oil price forecasts by $3 to $4 per barrel for both Brent and WTI for the 2025-2026 period. Despite this upside risk, Goldman remains cautious, noting that the likelihood of steep oil price declines has been reduced due to eased recession risks.

While the easing of recession fears is a positive for oil prices, Goldman analysts caution that robust supply growth outside of U.S. shale production could still lead to downward pressure on prices. Despite these concerns, Goldman’s base case reflects a modestly lower outlook for crude oil prices, particularly in the years 2025-2026. This is in line with the assumed preference for relatively low oil prices, consistent with the previous U.S. administration’s policy stance on crude oil.

As the global oil market remains in flux, Goldman’s analysis underscores the complex interplay between U.S. tariffs, supply dynamics, and broader economic factors that will shape the oil price landscape in the coming years.