McDonald’s Value Push Lifts Sales, But 2026 Outlook Tests Shares

Fourth-Quarter Beat Shows Value Is Pulling Customers Back

McDonald’s reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 11, 2026, topping expectations on revenue and adjusted earnings as global comparable sales increased 5.7%. The print matters because the company is a defensive consumer bellwether, and its traffic trends influence how markets price restaurant risk. The beat lifts near-term sentiment across quick-service names.

In its McDonald’s Q4 2025 earnings update, consolidated revenue rose 10% to $7.01 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, while net income increased 7% to $2.16 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $3.03, and adjusted earnings per share were $3.12 after excluding $0.09 in restructuring-related items.

U.S. Comparable Sales Rise 6.8% As Promotions Lift Guest Counts

The United States posted 6.8% comparable growth, reversing a 1.4% decline a year earlier, helped by positive guest count and check gains tied to marketing promotions and bundled offers. International Operated Markets grew 5.2%, led by the United Kingdom, Germany and Australia, while International Developmental Licensed Markets rose 4.5%, with Japan a key driver.

Systemwide sales increased 11% in the quarter and rose 7% for the full year to more than $139 billion. Across 70 markets, loyalty sales nearly $37 billion marked a 20% increase, and 90-day active loyalty users reached about 210 million at year-end.

Franchise Leverage Supports Profit, But Restructuring Charges Persist

Operating income increased 10% to $3.16 billion, including $80 million of pre-tax charges linked to the company’s internal modernization program. Excluding those charges and small prior-year items, operating income growth was 13%, reflecting how fee income rises with franchised sales.

About 95% of more than 45,000 locations are run by independent operators. That limits corporate labor exposure, but it also means deeper discounting can pressure franchisee-level economics quickly.

Dividend Raised To $1.86 As 2026 Capital Spending Scales Up

McDonald’s declared a 5% increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $1.86 per share. The 2026 outlook calls for 2026 capital expenditures $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion, with most of the spend aimed at new restaurants and system upgrades.

Management expects about 2,600 gross openings in 2026 and roughly 2,100 net restaurant additions, including about 750 openings across the United States and International Operated Markets.

Menu And Beverage Plans Aim To Lift Mix Without Heavy Discounting

Value remains central to the strategy, with a push into bundled deals designed to defend visits while customers remain cautious after years of inflation. McDonald’s is also expanding beverages, which can lift mix because incremental drink sales typically carry strong margins when throughput holds.

The trade-off is blunt: promotions can boost transactions, but they also test store-level margins if food and labor costs rise at the same time.

Costs, Currency, And Margin Guidance Stay In Focus

Management expects 2026 operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range, compared with 46.1% in 2025. The band will be sensitive to beef and dairy costs, packaging, and wages, plus how much menu pricing can rise without losing traffic. The guidance tests pricing power against stubborn input costs.

Foreign exchange can swing reported results because profits are generated across Europe and Asia. For Tredu readers, this is in focus because translation effects can move reported earnings and valuations even when local trends are steady.

Market Channels: Shares, Credit Spreads, Rates, And Volatility

Equity investors will focus on whether guest counts remain positive. A sustained traffic recovery can lift sector shares and reduce downside risk for suppliers; a stall often compresses multiples quickly.

In credit, stable earnings and a higher dividend can support investment-grade spreads, but funding $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion of annual capital spending keeps attention on free cash flow after payouts. In rates, aggressive value pricing can affect food-away-from-home inflation prints, influencing short-dated yields at the margin.

Base Case: Comparable Sales Cool, But Stay Positive Through Mid-2026

Base case is that global comparable sales slow from 5.7% as comparisons get harder, but remain positive as loyalty stays near 210 million active users and the U.S. holds above 3% growth. Under that path, McDonald’s shares behave defensively, with performance tied more to bond yields than quarter noise.

Upside Scenario: Beverages And Digital Raise Check Size

The upside scenario requires continued guest count gains and stronger international momentum that keeps International Operated Markets near 5%. Triggers include higher beverage attachment, steady delivery economics, and commodity costs that ease enough to protect store margins while keeping promotions targeted.

Downside Scenario: Discount Wars Deepen And Cost Inflation Reappears

The downside case is that competitors escalate discounting, forcing deeper deals that pressure franchisees and slow net additions below the expected 2,100. Triggers include renewed food inflation, faster wage growth, or a weaker consumer backdrop that shifts spend toward groceries, leaving shares exposed to higher volatility.