North America’s LNG Export Capacity to More Than Double by 2029, EIA Forecasts

Introduction

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that North America’s LNG export capacity will more than double by 2029, rising from 11.4 to 28.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) if current projects proceed as planned. This surge reaffirms the region’s role in shaping future global gas flows.

Supply Build-out & Regional Contributions

On its own, the U.S. plans to add approximately 13.9 Bcf/d of new liquefaction capacity by 2029, building from its already dominant base of 15.4 Bcf/d.

Canada and Mexico also plan expansions: Canada is targeting 2.5 Bcf/d, while Mexico is aiming for 0.6 Bcf/d of new capacity.

Together, North American additions are expected to constitute more than 50 percent of projected global LNG export growth through 2029, per IEA estimates.

Market Dynamics & Strategic Implications

U.S. Remains the Backbone

Much of the added capacity will be centered on the U.S. Gulf Coast, leveraging existing liquefaction hubs, pipeline infrastructure, and feed gas supply.

New pipeline and takeaway projects will be essential to channel gas from production basins to liquefaction terminals. Delays or bottlenecks in pipeline construction pose a key risk to timing.

Global Supply Pressure & Competition

As North America floods the market with LNG, global competition will intensify. Prices in Asia, Europe, and Latin America may face downward pressure, especially if demand softens or shipping costs climb.

Strategic Leverage for Energy Security

For energy importers, increased North American LNG supply represents a strategic hedge against reliance on volatile suppliers or politically fraught routes.

Environmental & Policy Tensions

The ramp-up raises questions about climate implications, methane leakage, regulatory scrutiny, and how this expansion coexists with decarbonization goals.

Risks & Constraints

• Project delays & cost overruns: Infrastructure scaling involves complex permitting, regulatory approval, and financing challenges.
• Feed gas availability: Sustaining high utilization demands consistent, high-volume gas production from upstream assets.
• Market demand mismatch: If global demand stagnates, there may be oversupply, margin compression, or stranded capacity risk.
• Policy and regulatory pushback: Environmental groups and policy shifts could restrict new approvals or impose emissions constraints.

What to Watch

• Status updates of major U.S. LNG projects (Plaquemines, Golden Pass, Rio Grande, Port Arthur)
• Pipeline and gas feed infrastructure developments
• LNG pricing dynamics in Europe and Asia
• Emission policies and regulatory developments in U.S., Canada, Mexico
• Global demand signals, especially in Asia and Europe

Market Impact

The forecasted surge in LNG export capacity is likely to reshape global gas markets. Asian and European importers may pivot toward North American supply, potentially reducing their dependence on rival exporters. For equity markets, energy and midstream companies with exposure to liquefaction, pipeline, and shipping may trade more aggressively on growth expectations. Over the medium term, the surplus could compress margins and intensify price competition.

Conclusion

The EIA’s projection that North America’s LNG export capacity will more than double by 2029 marks a potentially transformative shift in global gas flows, emphasizing U.S. leadership, challenging traditional exporters, and introducing new dynamics in supply, pricing, and energy security. The core theme: the future of LNG may be written in North America.