NZD/USD Holds Near 0.5900 as Strong NZ Retail Sales Support Kiwi

NZD/USD Stays Positive Near 0.5900 Following Strong New Zealand Retail Sales Data

The NZD/USD currency pair is trading with a slight bullish bias around the 0.5900 mark in early Friday trading during the Asian session, following stronger-than-expected retail sales figures out of New Zealand. The upbeat data has provided support to the Kiwi, although gains may be capped by firm US economic performance and anticipated comments from Federal Reserve officials later in the day.

New Zealand Retail Sales Beat Expectations

Retail Sales in New Zealand rose 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q1 2025, slightly lower than the previous 0.9% reading but still above market forecasts. The figures suggest that domestic consumption remains resilient, supported by prior interest rate cuts that have stimulated consumer spending and sentiment.

This positive economic signal lends strength to the New Zealand dollar, which is often seen as a proxy for Chinese economic activity due to the strong trade links between the two countries. As China remains a key destination for New Zealand’s exports, any boost in local data tends to reflect favorably on the Kiwi.

US Data and Fed Outlook in Focus

On the other side of the pair, the US dollar is being supported by a better-than-expected S&P Global PMI reading, which reinforces the strength of the US economy. While this may limit NZD/USD upside in the short term, traders are closely watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Alberto Musalem, Jeff Schmid, and Lisa Cook, scheduled for later today.

Recent remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that monetary policy will be closely aligned with fiscal developments and trade policy, particularly as markets consider the possibility of rate cuts later this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently a 71% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in the coming meetings.

Technical Outlook

• Support Levels: 0.5875, 0.5850
• Resistance Levels: 0.5920, 0.5950

The pair remains range-bound but biased slightly higher. A firm break above 0.5920 could open the door for further gains, while failure to hold 0.5875 may invite renewed selling pressure.

Conclusion

The NZD/USD pair is finding moderate support from domestic fundamentals, especially robust retail sales. However, the outlook remains mixed as traders balance upbeat Kiwi data against strong US PMI results and Fed policy expectations.