NZD/USD Rises Toward 0.6010 on Dovish RBNZ and Ahead of US Jobless Claims

NZD/USD Rises Toward 0.6010 on Dovish RBNZ and Ahead of US Jobless Claims

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed against the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday's early Asian trading session, with the NZD/USD pair trading near 0.6010. This move follows the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) decision to maintain its key interest rate at 3.25%, marking a pause in its easing cycle.

RBNZ Holds Rates Amid Rising Inflation Uncertainty

During its July policy meeting, the RBNZ opted to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged, signaling greater caution in response to lingering short-term inflation risks and economic uncertainty. This is the first time since August 2024 that the central bank refrained from cutting rates, keeping borrowing costs at their lowest since August 2022.

The RBNZ stated that holding rates steady will allow time to assess whether the recent economic softness is temporary and to monitor inflation expectations heading into the August meeting.

"We still assume that [RBNZ] will go at least one further step before the cycle is done. This should support the NZD," said Volkmar Baur, FX Strategist at Commerzbank.

US Jobless Claims Awaited for Further Direction

Investor focus now shifts to the upcoming US Initial Jobless Claims, due later today. The data is expected to provide clues on labor market strength and may impact short-term USD sentiment. A higher-than-expected figure could increase expectations for Fed rate cuts, further weakening the Greenback.

NZD/USD Outlook

The NZD/USD may remain supported in the near term if:

• US labor market data shows signs of weakening
• RBNZ signals a shift away from its previous easing bias
• Market risk sentiment continues to weigh on USD performance