Platinum Faces Supply Deficit, Palladium Market Nears Balance in 2025 – Commerzbank

Commerzbank forecasts a third consecutive supply deficit for platinum, while palladium returns to balance after a supply shortfall.

Platinum:
For the third consecutive year, the Platinum market is projected to experience a significant supply deficit of 736,000 ounces. This shortfall is attributed to a 5% decline in mine production in South Africa, which is expected to limit supply. Although demand is forecast to fall by 2.6%, largely due to reduced demand from the automotive industry and a decline in investment demand, the deficit will persist due to the supply constraints.

Palladium:
Unlike Platinum, the Palladium market is expected to approach balance in 2025, after experiencing a supply deficit of 501,000 ounces in 2024. The demand for Palladium is expected to fall by 6.4%, mainly due to a slowdown in the automotive industry and weaker investment demand, particularly due to anticipated ETF outflows. Despite this, supply is expected to decrease only slightly by 1.7%, contributing to a more balanced market.

Both metals face challenges from reduced industrial demand, especially in the automotive sector, as well as a decline in investment interest.