Senate Crypto Rules Bill Sets 2026 Roadmap for Tokens, Trades

Senate draft targets spot-market oversight and stablecoin yield

U.S. senators released a Senate crypto rules bill late Monday, January 12, that would set a federal framework for digital assets by clarifying when tokens are treated as securities or commodities. The text, due for a Senate Banking Committee markup on Thursday, January 15, would also give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority to police spot crypto markets, a shift that could widen participation in U.S. platforms.

Bitcoin traded around $93,600 on Tuesday, up about 2% on the day, and ether hovered near $3,190, as investors weighed whether the proposal sets a workable roadmap through 2026 for how assets list, clear, and settle. The reaction was muted in broader risk markets, but the bill’s details matter for crypto-linked equities and for banks that worry about stablecoin payouts competing with deposits.

The SEC-CFTC split is designed to sort tokens and reduce legal risk

At the center of the draft is a definition test intended to draw a cleaner SEC-CFTC split, and the bill targets the long-running question of which federal agency oversees which corner of the market. The legislation would spell out when a crypto token is a security, when it is a commodity, and when it sits outside those buckets, addressing a gap that has left exchanges exposed to shifting enforcement theories and inconsistent listing decisions.

By placing spot-market supervision with the CFTC, lawmakers are effectively aligning spot crypto market oversight with an agency that already regulates derivatives markets. The bill also requires the SEC and CFTC to coordinate on certain rules, including standardized disclosures tied to stablecoin reward programs, which would aim to make consumer terms comparable across platforms.

Stablecoin “interest” is curtailed, while activity-based rewards remain allowed

The draft also targets an issue that surged after a stablecoin statute enacted in 2025 created federal guardrails for dollar-pegged payment tokens. Banking groups argued that intermediaries could sidestep the law’s limits by paying yield-like interest on stablecoins, pulling cash out of insured accounts and into products without FDIC coverage.

Under the new text, crypto companies would be barred from paying interest to consumers solely for holding a payment stablecoin. Rewards and incentives could still be offered for defined actions, such as sending a payment or participating in a loyalty program, and regulators would be directed to require clear disclosures for those benefits. Banking and credit union associations have pointed to Treasury Department estimates that $6.6 trillion in bank deposits could be at risk if such incentives persist at scale, raising bank deposit flight risk for lenders that depend on low-cost retail funding.

Market impact runs through exchange valuations and bank funding costs

For crypto markets, clearer classification rules can compress the regulatory risk premium embedded in prices of tokens and in valuations of U.S.-listed trading venues. If the Senate process stays on track, investors may treat the January 15 markup as a signal that Washington is moving from enforcement-by-case to published rules, which can support liquidity and tighten bid-ask spreads in major pairs.

For banks, the stablecoin language is directly tied to funding. Deposit outflows force institutions to replace low-cost balances with wholesale funding, which can widen credit spreads and pressure profitability, especially for lenders with large retail franchises. A stricter prohibition on stablecoin interest would reduce one channel for deposit competition, but activity-based rewards could still keep pressure on payment margins and card economics if stablecoins gain checkout use.

Legislative timing is the next catalyst, with elections as the hard constraint

The immediate trigger is the Senate Banking Committee debate on January 15, when amendments could alter definitions, enforcement thresholds, and how decentralized finance activity is handled. Committee Chairman Tim Scott has framed the effort as a push to put clear rules in place and keep crypto innovation in the United States, while tightening safeguards against illicit use.

The Senate Agriculture Committee is developing its own market structure proposal and is expected to meet later in January, creating a second venue where the scope of oversight could change. The House passed its version of a market structure bill in July 2025, but Senate talks stalled over anti-money-laundering provisions and whether decentralized finance platforms should face intermediary-style obligations.

With Congress pivoting toward the 2026 midterm cycle, the window for reconciling competing drafts narrows, and a failure to pass legislation would leave firms relying on agency guidance that can shift with future administrations.

Three scenarios for how the bill sets the 2026 roadmap for trades

The base case is that committees advance a package that preserves the SEC-CFTC allocation and the stablecoin interest ban, but final passage slips into the second half of 2026 as lawmakers negotiate illicit finance and decentralized finance language. Under that path, bitcoin trades may remain sensitive to vote counts, with rallies fading when deadlines move.

An upside scenario is a narrower compromise that keeps consumer disclosures and spot oversight intact while limiting new requirements to centralized intermediaries, allowing a final bill to clear both chambers by mid-2026. A downside scenario is that amendments expand compliance duties for decentralized activity or reopen the stablecoin rewards compromise, delaying a vote beyond the election calendar and pushing investors to rebuild a higher risk premium across tokens and crypto-linked stocks.