US Labour Market Slows as Job Growth Trends Downward

US Labour Market: Stability in Unemployment, But Slower Job Growth

Unemployment Holds Steady at 4.2%

Commerzbank's latest analysis shows that the US unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, only slightly higher than the 4.0% recorded a year ago. This reflects minimal movement in recent months and suggests a steady but not improving labour market backdrop.

Job Creation Loses Momentum

More striking, however, is the decline in new job creation. One year ago, the three-month moving average for new jobs stood at 185,000. Today, that average has dropped to 135,000, following Friday's report of only 139,000 new jobs.

This signals a clear downtrend in employment momentum and highlights potential underlying weakness in hiring activity.

Further Downward Revisions Expected

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) indicates that official figures may still be revised significantly downward. This raises concerns that even the current weaker job data could be overly optimistic.

Labour Market Outlook: Key Takeaways

• Unemployment is not spiking, but job creation is tapering.
• Hiring trends suggest employers are becoming more cautious.
• QCEW data could expose deeper job market vulnerabilities in the coming months.

Read More on Tredu.com:

• What Slower Job Growth Means for the Fed's Policy
• Understanding QCEW and Its Role in Labour Revisions
• How the US Economy Responds to Labour Market Shifts