USD/CAD Price Forecast: Remains Subdued at 1.3650 Amid Persistent Bearish Bias

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Stays Subdued at 1.3650 as Bearish Bias Strengthens

The USD/CAD currency pair continues to hover around the 1.3650 mark during Friday's Asian session after dropping over 0.50% in the previous trading day. The pair’s lack of recovery suggests that bearish sentiment remains dominant, driven by both technical signals and macroeconomic expectations.

Bearish Technical Signals Reinforce Downside Bias

• RSI Under Pressure:
  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming sustained bearish momentum in the short term.
• Below EMA Resistance:
  USD/CAD continues to trade under the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3682, capping any upward attempts. This resistance level has acted as a short-term ceiling since the start of June.
• Downward Channel Structure:
  The pair is moving within a descending channel, pointing to a broader technical breakdown structure that favors selling rallies.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support:
  • 1.3539 – Eight-month low (tested on June 16)
  • 1.3460 – Lower channel boundary
  • 1.3419 – Lowest level since February 2024
• Upside Resistance:
  • 1.3682 – Nine-day EMA
  • 1.3745 – Psychological round number resistance
  • 1.3790 – Channel top

A clear break below 1.3539 could trigger a downside acceleration toward the 1.3460–1.3419 support zone, which would reaffirm the long-term bearish structure.

Market Outlook and What to Watch

Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of high-impact economic releases, including:

• US May PCE inflation data
• Canada’s April GDP figures
• Ongoing speculation around Federal Reserve independence

These events could serve as volatility catalysts for the USD/CAD pair in the short term.

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