USD/CHF Forecast: Bearish Bias Intact Below 100-Day EMA and 0.8200 Resistance

USD/CHF Stalls Below 100-Day EMA, Bearish Momentum Persists Under 0.8200

June 3, 2025 – Forex Technical Outlook

The USD/CHF pair is showing limited upside momentum on Tuesday, holding around 0.8180 in early European trading. Despite modest gains, the pair remains under downward pressure, with broader technical and macro factors favoring a bearish outlook.

Capped Below 100-Day EMA, Bearish Structure Holds

Technically, USD/CHF continues to trade below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling sustained bearish pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.60, well below the 50-neutral line, confirming that downside momentum remains dominant.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Immediate Support: 0.8130 – lower Bollinger Band and short-term floor
Next Key Support: 0.8039 – April 21 low
Psychological Support: 0.8000
Resistance to Watch: 0.8347 – near-term ceiling and 100-day EMA

A sustained break below 0.8130 could accelerate losses toward 0.8000, while any recovery will likely stall near 0.8347 unless sentiment significantly shifts.

Geopolitical Tensions Favor CHF Strength

On the macro side, renewed Middle East tensions and uncertainty over US trade tariffs are providing tailwinds for the Swiss Franc (CHF), a traditional safe-haven asset. Even as the US Dollar attempts a mild rebound, these broader risks are likely to limit USD/CHF upside.

Read more: How Geopolitical Risks Impact Safe-Haven Currencies

USD/CHF Outlook: Bearish Bias Likely to Persist

With technical indicators pointing south and macro factors supporting the CHF, USD/CHF is likely to remain under pressure unless the US Dollar sees a more sustained recovery or risk sentiment shifts notably.