USD/CHF Rebounds Above 0.8200 as Risk Sentiment Improves

USD/CHF Climbs Above 0.8200 as Swiss CPI Falls and Trade Concerns Ease

US Dollar Recovery Gains Momentum

The USD/CHF pair rebounded above the 0.8200 level in Tuesday’s European session, recovering from six-week lows of 0.8155. Risk appetite improved as fears of further trade tensions waned, pushing the US Dollar higher against most majors.

Swiss Inflation Data Fuels SNB Cut Expectations

In Switzerland, Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data for May revealed the economy slipping back into deflation, with annual inflation falling by 0.1%. Monthly CPI rose by just 0.1%, meeting expectations, but the weak price pressures strengthen the case for a June interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), likely down to 0%.

“This is the first instance of negative annual inflation since 2021, reinforcing expectations of a dovish SNB stance at the next policy meeting.”

US Data Eyes: Factory Orders and Job Openings

In the US, Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker-than-expected at 48.3, signaling further contraction and highlighting the ongoing impact of tariff uncertainty on industrial output.

Markets now focus on:

• April’s Factory Orders, forecast to fall by 3%, after a 3.4% rise in March.
• JOLTS Job Openings, expected to remain stable at 7.1 million.

A disappointing Factory Orders release could weigh on the Dollar, but upcoming ADP and NFP employment data may shift sentiment later in the week.

What to Watch on Tredu:

• SNB Rate Cut Expectations: Will Switzerland Go to Zero?
• USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Key Resistance and Support
• US Factory Orders: What’s at Stake for the Dollar?