WTI Oil Price Recovers Above $74 as Iran-Israel War Escalates

WTI Oil Price Recovers Above $74 as Iran-Israel War Escalates

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices moved back above $74.00 per barrel on Thursday during European hours as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified, sparking fears of a broader supply disruption.

Geopolitical Crisis Fuels Oil Supply Concerns

Tensions remain high after Israel struck Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor and multiple military targets overnight. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles at key locations across Israel, including Soroka Hospital in Beersheba, and central cities like Holon and Ramat Gan.

Media reports suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump has approved military plans to strike Iran but is withholding execution to monitor Iran’s nuclear stance. These developments are driving up oil prices, with fears mounting of a full-scale regional war affecting major crude flows.

Read Also: US Officials Prepare for Possible Iran Strike – Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Hawkish Pause Lifts USD

While crude oil gains from geopolitical tailwinds, the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in June provided further support to the US Dollar (USD). Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a hawkish stance, projecting only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 and maintaining one cut each for 2026 and 2027.

This strong USD performance—trading near a one-week high—poses a challenge for USD-denominated assets like oil, potentially capping further gains in crude prices despite growing supply risks.

WTI Outlook: Balancing Fundamentals and Risk Premium

Despite a strengthening dollar, WTI crude remains well-supported by the geopolitical risk premium. The market remains cautious, however, as uncertainty surrounding trade and future rate moves could limit aggressive bullish positioning.

• Resistance Level: $74.80
• Support Level: $73.00
• Bias: Bullish near-term, subject to conflict escalation

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