Zelenskiy to Meet Trump in Florida, Peace Talks Raise Market Stakes

Florida talks bring the toughest issues forward in a compressed window

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, to work through territorial questions and security guarantees as Washington pushes toward an agreement to end Russia’s war.

The Zelenskiy Trump meeting in Florida comes after negotiators moved closer on a 20-point peace framework. Zelenskiy said “a lot can be decided before the New Year,” and he described the draft as about 90% complete alongside a Ukraine security guarantees agreement that is “almost ready,” raising the stakes for investors because the remaining items are the ones that drive tail risk in Ukraine-linked assets.

Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and the mechanics of any land deal

Zelenskiy said the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia talks will be on the Florida agenda, including the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which sits on the front line under Russian control. Any settlement path that leaves the plant’s status vague can keep a persistent energy-security premium in regional planning and reconstruction costs.

Russia is pressing for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of the Donetsk region that Russian forces have not occupied, seeking full control of the Donbas, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Kyiv’s position is to halt fighting along current battle lines, a freeze that would avoid immediate withdrawal while leaving the map unresolved.

A U.S. compromise idea discussed in the talks would create a free economic zone if Ukraine leaves the area Russia demands. Zelenskiy said practical details were unclear, and those details matter because enforcement, customs rules, and security access determine whether the zone reduces friction or becomes a new conduit for coercion.

Zelenskiy said any territorial compromise should be decided by Ukrainians in a potential referendum, a constraint that can extend the timeline beyond a diplomatic announcement and keep Ukraine bond and FX risk sensitive to domestic politics after a draft is agreed.

Security guarantees and economic terms are the movable pieces

Ukraine is seeking robust, legally binding security guarantees to deter renewed aggression. Zelenskiy said the guarantees draft is near completion and that his goal in Florida is to refine the texts and discuss potential deals on Ukraine’s economy.

He said he was not ready to confirm whether any deal would be signed during the visit, but that Ukraine was open to an agreement. For markets, the signing question affects sequencing: a signed framework can tighten the Ukraine Eurobond risk premium quickly, while an unsigned draft tends to leave more of the risk priced into near-dated hedges.

Economic provisions linked to reconstruction capital, investment safeguards, and strategic sectors can also shift medium-term expectations for growth and financing. Those expectations matter because they shape the debt sustainability story that sits behind coupon payments and future issuance plans.

Europe may join online as Washington tries to keep talks moving

Zelenskiy said European leaders might join the talks online, and he said he discussed “significant progress” in the peace effort with Finland’s President Alexander Stubb on Friday, Dec. 26.

That coordination matters because European capitals carry much of the financing burden and sanctions architecture. A tighter alignment between Washington and Europe can reduce execution risk, while gaps over security guarantees or territorial sequencing can widen the range of outcomes and keep risk premia elevated into early 2026.

Russia keeps public silence while battlefield pressure continues

The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov spoke with members of the Trump administration after Moscow received U.S. proposals. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the documents, arguing that public remarks could undermine negotiations.

Zelenskiy said he plans to discuss additional pressure on Russia with Trump.

At the same time, Russia continued strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and stepped up attacks on the southern region of Odesa, home to Ukraine’s main seaports. A Russian attack on Kharkiv on Friday, Dec. 26, killed two people, underscoring that military pressure remains part of the bargaining environment.

How the meeting can transmit into rates, FX, energy, and logistics

The first pricing channel is Ukraine’s hard-currency debt, where credible progress on security guarantees and a freeze in fighting can compress spreads by lowering the probability of a renewed financing shock. Conversely, a visible impasse on Donbas terms can lift the risk premium investors demand for duration.

The second channel is foreign exchange hedging. Clearer sequencing for a deal can reduce demand for protection in regional proxies, while a breakdown can raise the cost of hedges and push liquidity toward the dollar as firms and funds reduce exposure into year-end.

Energy markets form the third channel. Even without immediate changes to Russian exports, the outlook for sanctions, repair costs, and cross-border power flows can shift with negotiation momentum, especially during winter when storage and import planning are sensitive to confidence.

A fourth channel is Black Sea-adjacent shipping and insurance. Any change in the perceived stability of export corridors from Odesa can alter risk surcharges and working-capital needs for agriculture and metals supply chains that rely on predictable port throughput.

Base case, one upside, and one downside for early 2026 pricing

The base case is continued drafting work through year-end with a framework that freezes fighting near current lines and stages the hardest sovereignty questions, while security guarantees land somewhere between political assurances and treaty-level commitments.

An upside scenario is a signed guarantees framework in early January 2026, plus an operational plan for the Zaporizhzhia plant and a workable design for the free economic zone, conditions that would support tighter funding spreads and lower hedging costs.

A downside scenario is that Russia’s Donetsk withdrawal demand becomes a hard stop or that referendum politics blocks implementation, coinciding with heavier strikes on energy nodes and ports, a combination that would keep Ukraine bond and FX risk elevated and lift volatility across the region.