Australian Exports to Weaken Amid Falling Commodity Prices, AUD Under Pressure

Australian Exports to Weaken Amid Falling Commodity Prices, AUD Under Pressure

The Australian government released its quarterly forecast for mining and export revenues in metals and energy sectors on Monday, signaling slower export growth ahead.

Despite expectations of increased export volumes, the government anticipates revenues from raw materials and energy exports to decline by approximately 4% in Australian Dollar (AUD) terms in the new fiscal year starting July 1. Revenues are forecast to fall a further 4.8% over the following 12 months.

This outlook is particularly impactful for Australia, where around two-thirds of exports consist of non-food raw materials and energy products. While some analysts maintain a slightly more optimistic view on commodity prices, they express caution on export volumes, especially considering a conservative growth forecast for China, Australia’s key trading partner.

The weaker export revenue forecast is expected to exert downward pressure on the AUD in the near term.

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