Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Sees Modest Gains to $3,350 Amid Tariff and Rate Cut Uncertainty

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Modest Gains at $3,350 Amid Tariff and Fed Uncertainty

Gold Rises as Markets React to Tariff Deadlines and Fed Signals

Gold (XAU/USD) began the week with mild gains, trading at around $3,350 in Monday’s early Asian session. The precious metal is benefiting from safe-haven demand as market participants assess the impact of looming US tariff deadlines and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Tariff Deadline Drives Safe-Haven Flows

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed on Sunday that August 1 remains the firm deadline for countries to begin paying newly imposed tariffs. The potential economic consequences of these tariffs are elevating market uncertainty, which historically boosts gold prices as investors seek a hedge.

Uncertainty surrounding trade policies under President Donald Trump's administration continues to exert pressure on global markets, supporting the case for increased gold demand.

Fed Outlook: Dovish Comments Fuel Bullish Momentum

Comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week added to the gold-supportive narrative. Waller emphasized the need for an interest rate cut at the upcoming July meeting, citing growing risks to the US economy. Although markets currently see a 94% probability that the Fed will hold rates, dovish sentiment continues to bolster non-yielding assets like gold.

Key Event: Powell’s Speech in Focus

Looking ahead, traders will monitor Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday. Any dovish remarks or indications of a policy shift could add upward pressure to gold.

University of Michigan Survey Could Limit Losses

A recent rise in the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index might act as a counterbalance, potentially capping gold’s upside. However, unless economic data strongly surprises to the upside, sentiment appears tilted in gold’s favor.

What’s Next for Gold?

With a firm tariff deadline approaching and heightened speculation around the Fed’s next move, XAU/USD could remain supported above the $3,300 mark. Should Powell signal policy easing or global risks escalate, gold may push toward new highs in the near term.

Read More from Tredu.com:

• Will Fed Rate Cuts Boost Gold in Q3?
• Understanding Tariffs: How They Affect Markets
• Safe-Haven Assets in 2025: What to Watch