Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds to $3,340-$3,350 as US Dollar Weakens Before Trade Talks

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds Toward $3,350 as Dollar Weakens Ahead of US-China Talks

Gold (XAU/USD) surged back toward the $3,340–$3,350 zone in early trading Monday, regaining ground lost in the previous two sessions. The rally is driven primarily by a softer US Dollar and growing risk aversion in global markets, as traders anxiously await the outcome of a high-stakes US-China trade summit taking place in London later today.

USD Weakness Sparks Gold Revival

After closing higher on Friday due to strong US Nonfarm Payrolls data, the US Dollar is retracing gains, with traders paring back long positions. The move signals growing market caution amid fears that a delay or breakdown in trade talks could reignite volatility across financial markets.

“The US Dollar is backtracking, and gold is benefiting as investors hedge against trade-related uncertainty,” analysts at Tredu Markets noted.

Technical Picture: Bearish Correction But Support Holds

From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD remains in a bearish correction phase, but Monday's price action suggests firm support at $3,340–$3,350. Bulls are defending this zone strongly, preventing a deeper pullback toward the $3,300 level.

• Immediate Resistance: $3,355
• Key Support: $3,335
• Next Bullish Target: $3,375 (if sentiment remains risk-off)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains balanced around midline, suggesting that any upside move from here could gain momentum if geopolitical risks escalate or the US Dollar continues to falter.

Broader Context: Trade Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand

The demand for safe-haven assets like Gold remains high as investors grow increasingly concerned about the state of global trade. Only the UK has managed to finalize a deal ahead of the July 9 trade resolution deadline, while the US and China remain in negotiation limbo.

Further escalation or lack of progress in today's meeting could push investors back into non-yielding assets like Gold.

What to Watch

• Outcome of US-China trade negotiations in London
• Fed commentary ahead of the June policy meeting (post-blackout)
• US CPI and PPI data later this week
• Movement in the US Dollar Index (DXY), especially around the 99.00 mark

Related Tredu Articles:

• US Dollar Index Dips Below 99.00 Before Trade Talks
• Silver Hits 13-Year Highs on Safe-Haven Rush
• Gold vs Silver: Which Safe-Haven Is Stronger in 2025?