Gold Inches Higher as Dollar Weakens Ahead of NFP and Fed Speculation

Gold Ticks Higher as Dollar Softens Before NFP Report

Gold (XAU/USD) moved slightly higher to $3,292 on Monday, lifted by a weaker US Dollar ahead of this week’s high-impact economic releases. The USD continues to lose ground, nearing levels last seen in February 2022, amid rumors surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next chair and political uncertainty in Washington.

Key Drivers of Gold's Movement

• XAU/USD rose 0.58% on the day, bouncing from intraday lows of $3,246.
• Citi expects gold to trade between $3,100 and $3,500 throughout Q3 2025.
• Middle East peace developments limited further upside in safe-haven flows.
• Uncertainty over Fed leadership and looming macroeconomic data pressured the USD.

Fed Leadership Speculation Weighs on USD

Market speculation suggests that President Donald Trump could name the next Fed Chair by September or October, a move causing uncertainty and contributing to USD softness. This anticipation comes as the Fed navigates inflation and policy normalization.

Crowded Economic Calendar Ahead

Investors brace for a shortened trading week filled with major US releases:

• ISM Manufacturing & Services
• ADP Employment Report
• Initial Jobless Claims
• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday

All could be critical for near-term Dollar direction and gold volatility.

Geopolitical Calm Caps Bullion’s Upside

Easing tensions in the Middle East and prospects of finalized trade deals have muted the traditional safe-haven demand for gold. Despite this, bullish momentum remains intact amid broad USD weakness.

US Tax Reform Adds to Market Noise

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the controversial “One Big Beautiful Bill”—a sweeping tax reform plan—will likely pass within hours. The bill, which recently cleared the Senate, includes:

• Major tax deductions
• Cuts to Medicaid and green energy programs

This fiscal overhaul could influence both USD strength and investor risk appetite, indirectly affecting gold prices.

Related Content on Tredu.com

• How Gold Reacts to Fed Policy Changes
• Understanding the NFP Report and Its Market Impact
• Safe-Haven Assets: When to Invest in Gold