Oil Set for Worst April Since 1988 as Trade War and OPEC+ Moves Rattle Market

Oil prices are on track for their steepest April decline in history, with Brent crude down nearly 15% this month — the worst April performance since futures began trading in 1988 — amid mounting concerns over demand destruction from the U.S.-China trade war and rising global supply.

Brent hovered near $63 a barrel Wednesday, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell back to the upper $50s. The selloff comes as factory data from China showed the sharpest contraction since December, and U.S. consumer confidence plunged to a near five-year low.

Crude markets have also been roiled by OPEC+’s decision to loosen production curbs. The group unexpectedly announced a 411,000-barrel-per-day increase for May, stoking fears it may ramp up output again when it meets on May 5.

“The next six-to-eight weeks should start to see rising supply and rising inventory,” said Robert Rennie of Westpac, pointing to OPEC+ moves and renewed flows from Kazakhstan.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3.8 million barrels last week, according to API estimates, while inventories at Cushing also edged higher.

President Donald Trump defended his sweeping 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, calling them necessary and denying they would hurt U.S. consumers. The tariffs have cast a shadow over global trade and energy consumption, particularly from top importer China.

Beyond OPEC+, producers in Canada and Guyana are also ramping up, with Morgan Stanley warning of a “meaningful surplus” in the months ahead despite current signs of tightness.

Analysts say OPEC+ policy remains the key variable. “Markets are justifiably worried that OPEC+ could add more supply than planned once again,” said Vivek Dhar at Commonwealth Bank.

April's plunge echoes the chaos of 2020’s pandemic collapse but now reflects a new set of structural risks — trade wars and oversupply.