Swiss Gold Export Swings Hammer Swiss Surplus Amid Trump Tariff Fears

Surge and Crash, How Gold Export Swings Shattered Switzerland’s Surplus

Switzerland, the global powerhouse in bullion refining and transit, saw its Swiss current account surplus plunge in the second quarter of 2025, slashed from CHF 25 billion a year earlier to just CHF 10 billion. The culprit: volatile gold export swings spurred by Trump tariff fears among traders and bullion markets.

At the start of the year, bullion worth billions was shipped from Swiss hubs to the U.S. as market players bet Washington might hit gold imports with new tariffs. Then in April, the U.S. removed gold from its proposed tariff list. That sparked a tug-of-war of assets, with some gold flowing back to Switzerland and Britain.

The Chaotic Figures Behind the Drop

Credits vs Expenses, Gold Trade Imbalance

According to Swiss National Bank (SNB) data, Switzerland logged CHF 28.2 billion in credits from gold exports in Q2. But its expenses tied to the gold trade soared even higher, to CHF 38 billion, yielding a net deficit of CHF 9.7 billion in the gold segment. That imbalance was a key driver in the sharp drop of the overall surplus.

Structural vs Temporary Trends

While this collapse in surplus sends alarm bells in headlines, economists like UBS’s Maxime Botteron view the drop as driven by transitory forces, especially the “volatility at the start of the year.” Looking ahead, Botteron and others expect gold flows to stabilize and for the Swiss current account surplus to recover somewhat, barring fresh shocks from trade policy or crisis demand.

Broader Implications, Swiss Franc, Trade Policy, and Global Gold Demand

Exchange Rate Strength

Switzerland’s long-standing current account surplus has been a structural pillar supporting the strength of the Swiss franc, since foreign buyers must acquire francs to buy Swiss goods and services. A suddenly eroded surplus could loosen this grip, especially if gold trade imbalances persist.

Market Reaction & U.S. Policy Risks

The episode highlights how sensitive commodity flows are to U.S. trade policy. Trump tariff fears didn’t just affect gold: they translated into real-world adjustments in trade flows, risk hedging, and international financial positions. With new trade regimes, geopolitics, or another sweep of tariff threats, gold trade, and by extension the Swiss surplus, could see more shocks.

What to Watch Next

• Gold export momentum: Will it settle back to historical norms now that the U.S. lifted most gold tariff risk?
• Swiss current account trends: Can income from gold trade and other sectors offset the deficits to steady the surplus?
• Policy shifts in Washington: Any renewed threats or moves in trade policy could trigger another round of export swings.
• Currency markets: How will the franc respond if the surplus stays under pressure?

In sum, the Swiss current account surplus has taken a punishing hit this quarter, largely because of massive gold export swings triggered by Trump tariff fears. While Switzerland’s gold trade has shown its capacity for volatility, what remains central is how policy uncertainty, especially from the U.S., can ripple through global trade and financial systems. The core theme is clear: gold flows, tariff risk, and surplus strength are deeply interconnected, and now more than ever Switzerland’s surplus must weather the storm of uncertainty.