USD/CHF Hovers Near 0.8100 as Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise and Ceasefire Dents USD Appeal

USD/CHF Slides Toward 0.8100 on Fed Dovishness and Geopolitical Calm

June 25, 2025 – Forex Markets Update
The USD/CHF pair continues its downward trend, trading just above the 0.8100 mark in Tuesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) struggles under the weight of dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary and reduced geopolitical tension.

Key Developments Pressuring the USD

• Fed Rate Cut Bets Increase:
  Market participants priced in higher odds of a July rate cut after US PMI data came in mixed and Fed officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, signaled dovish intent.
• Israel-Iran Ceasefire Announcement:
  US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a "complete and total" ceasefire between Iran and Israel reduced safe-haven flows into the USD.

🇨🇭 Swiss Franc Finds Strength

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is supported by the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) neutral-to-hawkish tone, as policymakers downplay any prospects for further rate reductions. This policy divergence favors the CHF in the near term.

Technical Outlook for USD/CHF

• The pair remains below the 0.8150 support zone.
• Current support is seen near 0.8100, while any recovery might face resistance around 0.8150–0.8180.
• RSI indicators signal continued bearish momentum.

What's Next for Traders?

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Capitol Hill, expected later today. His remarks could either validate the market’s dovish expectations or inject surprise hawkish tone that might lift the USD.

More on Tredu.com:

• EUR/USD Forecast Amid Fed Dovish Shift
• Gold Prices in India: Latest Rates and Outlook
• What the Israel-Iran Ceasefire Means for Markets